Another game, another back-to-back, another excusing of half-assing a blog post. In true Bring Back Novak spirit, instead of writing two separate previews I'm fusing the previews for the Pacers and Hornets games. I know, I know, I exemplify the ideals of journalistic integrity. These two games will mark Kevin Martin and Jordan Hill's first as Rockets, as well his Hilton Armstrong's glorious homecoming to New Orleans. So yeah, that'll be fun? I guess? You know what, it's probably for the best if you forget that I mentioned Hilton.
First and foremost, the focus of these two games will be the impact our newcomers have. It's unfair to rationally expect immediate results from anyone except possibly Kevin Martin, but that does nothing to change the fact that a lot of us will have already formed premature opinions of the newest additions to the Rockets team by Monday morning.
Kevin Martin should play the most minutes and have the greatest effect on the game, as he's easily the best player we received and is already somewhat familiar with Adelman's style (though I'd like to point out there that there's really no such thing as "Rick Adelman's Offense," his offensive system from last year to this year alone has drastically changed). But like I mentioned earlier, Martin is adept at moving without the ball and a deadly shooter, so don't be surprised if he looks like he's been spotting up from three and coming off screens for his entire life because, well, he has.
Jordan Hill will probably be the second player to watch, as he'll most likely be forced to take some of Carl Landry's minutes immediately. Hill is a skilled, athletic player and could potentially be an upgraded version of Landry as he polishes his game. Hopefully spending time with Scola and Yao, two of the most well-developed post players in the league, will speed up his growth.
Too keep things to the point, don't expect much from Armstrong or Jeffries just yet.
I've never done one of these double previews before, but my plan of attack right now is to go over general stuff that will apply to both games before breaking down each game separately. I have an unsettling feeling that this is going to end up needing more work than if I had previewed each game separately, so we'll see how this unfolds.
As always, a component to our success will be how efficiently and quickly we run the offense. Adelman's offense this season has been predicated on reading-and-reacting to the defense, crisp, quick player movement, familiarity between players and rapid decision-making. It'll be interesting to see how well Martin and Hill mesh with the rest of the team after only a few days to learn the playbook, but if they can at least avoid breaking plays and stopping ball-movement we should be in good shape.
Another key to both games will be Trevor Ariza. Ariza's been hot as of late, at least by his standards, and his 8-11 explosion against the Bucks was truly beautiful to watch. I'm worried about how he's going to react to the Rockets signing a true alpha-dog wing player, as he's been a bit, well, testy, to put it nicely, all season and seems like a player who requires a bit of ego-stroking to stay happy and invested, so hopefully he and Martin don't have issues gelling.
Our bench play is going to be essential these next few games, as many times the only factor stopping the Rockets from those sub-twenty point quarters has been the stellar energy and play of Carl Landry and Kyle Lowry off the bench, and since we'll be missing both these next two days, somebody is going to need to step up off the pine and provide some offense. And, by someone, I mean you, Chase Budinger. This photo has been my background for the past couple of weeks, don't let me down now.
Finally, this weekend's games very well may turn into three point shootouts, as the Rockets, Pacers and Hornets rank third, fifth and seventh, respectively, in three pointers attempted. Here's hoping Brooks, Ariza, Martin, Battier and company can knock down their triples.
vs. Indiana Pacers
Before I say anything about the Indiana Pacers as a whole, I feel like this is an appropriate time to point out my inexplicable fondness towards Mike Dunleavy. I love the man, I really do. I loved him when he was on the Warriors, I loved him during his breakout season as a Pacer, I've even loved him through these past one and a half, injury-plagued seasons. Dunleavy is currently locked in a vicious battle with Mike Miller for the position of my third favorite non-Rocket (behind Steve Nash and Josh Smith). So glad that's out of the way.
The Pacers seem like an outdated prototype for the Rockets, as they too are a fast-paced, three-happy, bottom-third offensive team, it's just that we're a lot better at doing what they do. The Pacers are currently second in the league in pace but fourth from last in offensive efficiency, although they're actually a slightly better defensive team than we are, which, frankly, comes as a surprise when you consider that, well, it's the Indiana Freakin' Pacers.
Chuck Hayes may or may not have his hands full with Roy Hibbert, who's been the paradigm of inconsistency this season. He's had his minutes yanked around by Mr. O'Brien, even losing his starting spot for a stretch to Jeff Foster before the aforementioned suffered a season-ending injury, but if Hibbert can stay out of foul trouble and remain composed through Chuck's relentless ball-hounding and charge-drawing, we could be in for a battle down low. If not, well, don't be surprised if the Pacers get four points and four rebounds in 30 minutes from their starting center.
Bench play will especially be a key in tonight's game, as the Pacers have been bringing Dunleavy off the bench for most of the season because of his knee troubles, and although Mike has had his fair share of struggles this season, if he gets hot we'll need someone off our bench to counteract his scoring. Again, no pressure, Chase.
If you're into the Four Factors, the Pacers struggle to keep their opponent off the free throw line, and although we have a very similar free throw rate to the Pacers, the addition of Kevin Martin, who averaged ten trips a night to the line last season, should change that. If K-Mart can get to the line the way he usually does it will make things that much easier on the rest of the Rockets. Plus, if the Pacers are in the bonus for most of the game, it will hopefully help us to avoid the dry-stretches our offense is prone to suffering.
All in all, we're the better team, are at home and will be exciting after our blockbuster deal, while the Pacers, quite frankly, haven't looked invested in a basketball game since about 2004. I'd be surprised if we lost tonight, but stranger things have happened in this league. Like real strange. Like real effin' strange.
@ New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets will be without Chris Paul, who's slated to miss four-to-six weeks due to knee surgery, and a year ago that would mean the Hornets would essentially be playing, well, without their team. But thanks to revelatory rookie Darren Collison, who's truly been break-taking, and a career renaissance from Peja Stojakovic, we should still be in for a game on Sunday.
A key to this game will be pace, as the Hornets are the twelfth slowest team in the league while we're the ninth fastest. If we can dictate the tempo and keep them out of their half-court sets it would greatly improve our chances tomorrow.
The Hornets have been better than us offensively this season, and a big part of that success has been their lights out shooting from deep. Although they take two less threes a game than we do they make just as many, and staying with Peja and Marcus Thornton will be a necessity if we'd like to leave New Orleans with a win.
Brooks is going to have his hands full with Darren Collison, who, as a starter, has averaged 17 points and 8 assists a night on 45 percent shooting. If those numbers sound familiar, it's because Paul averaged 16 and 8 on 43 percent shooting his rookie season. Suffice it to say that yeah, this Collison kid is damn good. He posted his first career triple double against the Pacers yesterday, and the team that wins the point guard battle tomorrow has a great shot at winning the game.
I'm going to cut off the preview here because it started dragging about four paragraphs ago and even I'm getting bored of reading my own writing. These two games aren't particularly enticing on the surface, but, if nothing else, tune in for the sole purpose of seeing how Kevin Martin looks in a Rockets uniform. We're still fighting for a playoff spot, and every win counts. The last thing we'd want is to be sitting at home in April because we blew that mid-February game against the Pacers since you weren't cheering us on at home. So good luck, new-Rockets, and in fact, good luck to our older ones too. And, as always, go Rockets.
Houston Rockets: 28-25, 95.9 possessions per game (9th), 103.3 points scored per 100 possessions (19th), 104.0 points allowed per 100 possessions (17th)
Indiana Pacers: 18-36, 99.9 possessions per game (2nd), 99.3 points scored per 100 possessions (27th), 104.2 points allowed per 100 possessions (15th)
New Orleans Hornets: 29-26, 94.2 possessions per game (19th), 104.9 points scored per 100 possessions (14th), 105.5 points allowed per 100 possessions (11th)
All statistics courtesy of hoopdata.com
Damn. Dunleavy at 3rd behind Nash and Smith?
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